A Study of the Casino Game Crash

Project Valentina was created to explore the statistics behind Crash. Crash is a simple game of chance where a player picks the cashout amount for a betting round as an icon representing a rocket flying through space. The cashout amount climbs until the rocket 'crashes' and as long as the player's cashout amount is lower than the crash value, the player can win a payout. (Multiplier * Initial Value)

Why it's impossible to win in the long term

Crash uses an equation to calculate their given multipliers. And regardless of the cashed out point, the expected value will always be below 0.

What do these variables mean?

Multiplier: Calculate the expected value assuming you always cash out at this multiplier value.

Initial Crash Rate: Chance the game crashes at 1 (ie. if the value is v, then it will crash at 1.0x, (1/v * 100)% of the time). The lower the value, the more likely it is to crash at 1

Growth Rate: The Pareto index, It can be used to skew the results infavor of the casino, the higher the growth rate, the more likely you are to have lower multipliers (Most casinos use a growth rate of 1, so it doesn't skew the game too much in their favor and break the illusion of a fair game)